* Illegal immigration and refugee hosting have been a small fraction of the legal immigration flow of the past 20 years and most people who write on those topics seem to me to do so to distract attention from the much bigger numbers achieved via legal immigration.
* Both refugees and illegal and legal immigration route are essential to boost the prices of the properties owned by "Middle England" voters and to "moderate" the labour costs of services used by "Middle England" voters. Those voters do not want their house prices to halve and their delivery fees to double.
Whatever the demerits of these schemes though I'm curious about how they fit into the bigger immigration picture. If net migration is falling sharply now (as it seems to be - some even say it will go into negative figures soon) are we seeing Labour making a choice for "humanitarian" immigration over economic? And if so could that play quite well with the public? Obviously Starmer couldn't ever have sold it as such but if (big if) this is part of a sort of Lefty immigration grand bargain in which economic immigration will be strictly controlled in return for more so-called safe and legal routes then could that lead to much smaller numbers overall and be a general improvement despite its drawbacks?
That this happened really baffles me: I thought that the political strategists of all parties knew that UK general elections have been for several decades property prices referendums but they are behaving almost as if they were immigration referendums. My best guesses as to this weird situation is:
1) Since 2022 property prices have been flat (or worse) for reasons no parties can fix in the short-medium term so they have given up on the primary issue and compete for votes over a secondary issue that they think that they can control.
2) The main priority of both Conservatives and New Labour is to return to a two main parties situation so they simply are trying to ensure Reform UK disappears by taking over its main point.
As to 2) if they are really thinking that my guess it is a mistake: my guess is that the vast majority of Reform UK voters are ex-Conservatives who are just angry about flat property prices and so are making a protest vote for the next toriest party (which New Labour has always aspired to be).
The big problems are:
* Illegal immigration and refugee hosting have been a small fraction of the legal immigration flow of the past 20 years and most people who write on those topics seem to me to do so to distract attention from the much bigger numbers achieved via legal immigration.
* Both refugees and illegal and legal immigration route are essential to boost the prices of the properties owned by "Middle England" voters and to "moderate" the labour costs of services used by "Middle England" voters. Those voters do not want their house prices to halve and their delivery fees to double.
Excellent analysis as ever - thank you.
Whatever the demerits of these schemes though I'm curious about how they fit into the bigger immigration picture. If net migration is falling sharply now (as it seems to be - some even say it will go into negative figures soon) are we seeing Labour making a choice for "humanitarian" immigration over economic? And if so could that play quite well with the public? Obviously Starmer couldn't ever have sold it as such but if (big if) this is part of a sort of Lefty immigration grand bargain in which economic immigration will be strictly controlled in return for more so-called safe and legal routes then could that lead to much smaller numbers overall and be a general improvement despite its drawbacks?
«If net migration is falling sharply now»
That this happened really baffles me: I thought that the political strategists of all parties knew that UK general elections have been for several decades property prices referendums but they are behaving almost as if they were immigration referendums. My best guesses as to this weird situation is:
1) Since 2022 property prices have been flat (or worse) for reasons no parties can fix in the short-medium term so they have given up on the primary issue and compete for votes over a secondary issue that they think that they can control.
2) The main priority of both Conservatives and New Labour is to return to a two main parties situation so they simply are trying to ensure Reform UK disappears by taking over its main point.
As to 2) if they are really thinking that my guess it is a mistake: my guess is that the vast majority of Reform UK voters are ex-Conservatives who are just angry about flat property prices and so are making a protest vote for the next toriest party (which New Labour has always aspired to be).