Estimates of Winter Fuel Payment losses for old and new constituencies

The numbers the government doesn't want to publish

The Government is refusing to answer Parliamentary Questions on the number of people in each Parliamentary Constituency which it plans to take the Winter Fuel Payment away from.

Instead, Ministers invite MPs to produce their own estimates using published data.

That’s poor anyway, and furthermore the published data is based on the old Constituency boundaries, when most have now changed - for example, of 533 existing constituencies in England, only 55 are unchanged.

Now, the government definitely has this data - indeed, I note their answers don’t say otherwise. Because this is administrative data (not survey) with large numbers of claimants, they could easily produce numbers for pretty much any geography you want.

So, in the absence of official government numbers here are my estimates. There are two steps in the data below.

• First, work out the numbers of losers in each constituency on the old (2010) boundaries, using published data for Pension Credit and WFP claimants.

• Then, map across from old to new constituencies using House of Commons Library figures on the flows of population between old and new constituencies.

This second step is inevitably a rough estimate. It assumes that if chunk X of Constituency A has come into Constituency B that chunk X has the exact same proportions of claimants and losers as the rest of chunk X. (I use the word “chunk” rather than ‘ward’ as some moves are parts of wards).

Still, in the absence of the government behaving in a reasonable and democratic way, this is as good as it is going to get for now.

Old boundaries

Here are the numbers of people losing, on the old constituency boundaries. Hover to see the numbers of WFP claimants, Pension Credit Claimants, the number of losers and the share of claimants losing.

Here’s the same data but with colours showing the share of claimants losing.

New boundaries

Now, here are the estimated numbers of losers on the new boundaries.

NB Constituencies are now more evenly sized - the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020 requires that most seats have between 69,724 and 77,062 voters.

Again, here’s the same data for new seats, but with colours showing the share of claimants losing.

Analysis

Maybe someone in government thinks this is canny politics - hitting seats where Labour are not going to win anyway. The problem with that is that the number of losers is highest in Labour’s most marginal seats, which tend to be older:

There is a Westminster meme that pensioners are all rolling in it - this is not the case.

Median pensioner income in 2022–23, after deducting housing costs, was £533 per week, compared with £589 per week among working-age individuals – a gap of roughly 10%.

Steve Webb has produced analysis looking at the 1.9 million pensioners shown in official figures as having household incomes below 60% of the national average – the government’s own preferred poverty line.

Out of these, just 300,000 are in receipt of pension credit. This means that roughly 5 out of 6 pensioners in poverty are about to see a cut of £200 or £300 in their annual income.

Even if you support means testing, this looks too aggressive.

Labour’s defensive line is that it will work to increase takeup of Pension Credit.

But Pension Credit statistics on take-up suggest that only 800,000 aren't claiming - which is pretty small compared to the c. 10,000,000 losers, and only half of those below the government’s preferred poverty line. Journos should ask: what are the other 800,000 supposed to do?

During the 2024 election Labour said there were ‘no plans to change’ the Winter Fuel Payment.

In September just before the election Rachel Reeves criticised the government after there was speculation in the media that the Winter Fuel Payment could be means tested: “These were commitments that the Conservatives gave to older people at the last election in their manifesto, and they should not be breaking those commitments.”

Darren Jones wrote to the Chancellor saying: “Pensioners will be deeply concerned about such speculation, especially ahead of winter, and anxious that their incomes may be under threat from this government. Pensioners are already having to contend with dramatic increases to the cost of living, particularly when it comes to their energy bills.”

Similar things had happened in previous elections. During the 2017 election Labour said that means testing the Winter Fuel Payment would lead to an extra 3,850 pensioner deaths.

Angela Rayner put out a tweet saying: "Will May confirm that 10 million pensioners will lose their winter fuel payments if the Tories are re-elected?"

Now she is defending taking them off… 10 million pensioners.

It’s not really surprising that people are furious. I’m an opposition backbencher and my mailbox is pinging with emails from constituents as I write this. Lord knows what it’s like for Labour MPs in marginal seats.